AI Valuation Jitters Go Global, Week in Review
6 Min. Read Time
Week in Review
- Asian equities were mixed for the week as Vietnam and India outperformed, while Mainland China’s STAR Board and the Philippines outperformed.
- On Monday, China reported an “unexpected” increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in October, up +0.2% year-over-year (YoY) versus September's -0.3%.
- Xpeng unveiled an exceedingly lifelike humanoid robot at its 2025 Xpeng AI Day right after announcing 42,000 vehicles sold in October, representing a +30% increase from September.
- Internet earnings kicked off this week as JD.com and Tencent both beat estimates on adjusted revenue and net income in their third quarter earnings reports, though JD’s margins continue to be under pressure from instant commerce subsidies.
- Check out our latest video, where Xiabing Su attends the 2025 China International Import Expo.
Friday’s Key News
Asian equities curbed the week’s gain as the region followed US stocks south, led lower by growth stocks, except for India and Vietnam.
Hong Kong grinded lower across the trading day on terrible breadth as the Hong Kong stock heatmap resembles Omaha Beach. Mainland China was higher early as the Shanghai Composite hit a 52-week high intra-day after yesterday’s 52-week high, but plummeted into the close. Yes, China’s October economic data wasn’t great, but it wasn’t terrible, per the below.
Mainland investors bought a very healthy $1.66 billion worth of Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETFs, as Tencent and Alibaba saw large inflows, though Connect only accounted for 21% of turnover. This indicates to me that global, i.e. foreign, investors were sellers, especially as they are underweight India, which was up.
Alibaba, which fell -4.38% overnight, will partner with JP Morgan to create tokenized payments for B2B E-Commerce transactions. Alibaba will announce financial results on Tuesday, November 25th, after the close in Hong Kong. Tencent fell -2.29% despite yesterday’s great financial results. Yesterday, the company announced that Apple will get 15% of WeChat mini game purchases. Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) fell -2.78%, JD.com fell -6.03%, and Bilibili fell -1.79%. These stocks were all off despite better-than-expected results. Baidu fell -7.21% on no news, despite its continued AI push. JD Health gained +6.59% after beating analyst expectations with revenue up +29% year-over-year (YoY) and adjusted net income up +60% YoY.
Premier Li and the State Council had a meeting on implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan, including how to “enhance the supply and demand matching of consumer goods and further promote consumption”. Another focus was “accelerating the innovative application of new technologies and new models, strengthening the integration and empowerment of Artificial Intelligence”.
The Ministry of Finance’s Lan Foan was interviewed by Xinhua News Agency on fiscal policy to support the 15th Five-Year Plan. He noted supportive policies will continue, such as increasing the deficit rate, which has risen to 4% this year, in addition to the RMB 19.4 trillion worth of government bond issuance and tax and fee reductions that “exceeded CNY 10 trillion”. In response to raising domestic consumption, “we will vigorously boosting consumption” through “fiscal subsidies, loan interest subsidies and other policy tools to expand the consumption of goods and services”. He alluded to anti-involution efforts by stating “prevent “internal competition” and enhancing consumption capacity through “tax, social security and transfer payments”. Sounds good, though obviously a non-factor in today’s trading.
Nothing to report from today’s soybean watch.
October Economic Data Release
- New Home Prices month-over-month (MoM) -0.45% versus September’s -0.41%
- Used Home Prices MoM -0.66% versus September’s -0.64%
- Retail Sales +2.9% versus September’s 3% and expectations of 2.8%
- Retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles +4% YoY
- Online retail sales YTD YoY +9.6% YoY
- Industrial Production 4.9% versus September’s 6.5% and expectations of 5.5%
- Fixed Asset Investment -1.7% versus September’s -0.5% and expectations of -0.8%
- Property Investment YTD YoY -14.6% versus September’s -13.9% and expectations of -14.5%
- Residential Property Sales YTD YoY -9.4% versus September’s -7.6%
- FDI versus September’s -13.9% and expectations of -10.4%
Last Night's Performance
| Country / Index | Ticker | 1-Day Change |
|---|---|---|
| China (Hong Kong) | HSI Index | -1.8% |
| Hang Seng Tech | HSTECH Index | -2.8% |
| Hong Kong Turnover | HKTurn Index | -14% |
| Hong Kong Short Sale Turnover | HKSST Index | -8.1% |
| Short Turnover as a % of Hong Kong Turnover | N/A | 14.9% |
| Southbound Stock Connect Net Buy/Sell (US $ Millions) | N/A | 1,645.80 |
| China (Shanghai) | SHCOMP Index | -1% |
| China (Shenzhen) | SZCOMP Index | -1.4% |
| China (STAR Board) | Star50 Index | -2.7% |
| Mainland Turnover | .chturn Index | -4.1% |
| Northbound Stock Connect Net Buy/Sell (US $ Millions) | N/A | Not Available |
| Jing Daily China Global Luxury Index | CHINALUX Index | -2% |
| Japan | NKY Index | -1.8% |
| India | SENSEX Index | 0.1% |
| Indonesia | JCI Index | 0% |
| Malaysia | FBMKLCI Index | -0.4% |
| Pakistan | KSE100 Index | 0.6% |
| Philippines | PCOMP Index | -2.5% |
| South Korea | KOSPI Index | -3.8% |
| Taiwan | TWSE Index | -1.8% |
| Thailand | SET Index | -1.4% |
| Singapore | STI Index | -0.7% |
| Australia | AS51 Index | -1.4% |
| Vietnam | VNINDEX Index | 0.2% |
| Indicator | Hong Kong | Mainland China |
|---|---|---|
| Today's Volume as % of 1-Year Average | 96 | 100 |
| Advancing Stocks | 72 | 1898 |
| Declining Stocks | 411 | 3077 |
| Outperforming Factors | ||
| Underperforming Factors | Liquidity, Buyback, Large Cap | Momentum, Liquidity, Growth |
| Top Sectors | Staples | |
| Bottom Sectors | Discretionary, Materials, Tech | Tech, Materials, Industrials |
| Top Subsectors | Consumer Discretionary Distribution | Forest, Gas, Energy Equipment |
| Bottom Subsectors | Electrical Equipment, Consumer Discretionary Distribution, Non Ferrous Metals | Computer Hardware, Semis, Internet |
| Southbound Connect Buys | Alibaba, Tencent (Very Large), SMIC, Xiaomi, XPeng (Large), Hua Hong Semi, Meituan (Tiny) | N/A |
| Southbound Connect Sells | 3SBio (Small) | N/A |
| MSCI China All Shares Index | # of Stocks | Average 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong Listed | 151 | -2.36 |
| Communication Services | 9 | -2.52 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 28 | -3.38 |
| Consumer Staples | 13 | 0.14 |
| Energy | 7 | -1.77 |
| Financials | 23 | -1.26 |
| Health Care | 13 | -1.3 |
| Industrials | 20 | -1.95 |
| Information Technology | 10 | -2.54 |
| Materials | 10 | -3.05 |
| Real Estate | 6 | -0.61 |
| Utilities | 12 | -1.17 |
| Mainland China Listed | 404 | -1.59 |
| Communication Services | 6 | -1.56 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 31 | -1.18 |
| Consumer Staples | 24 | -1.13 |
| Energy | 13 | -0.63 |
| Financials | 64 | -0.55 |
| Health Care | 31 | -0.7 |
| Industrials | 64 | -1.99 |
| Information Technology | 91 | -3.06 |
| Materials | 58 | -2.14 |
| Real Estate | 6 | -0.1 |
| Utilities | 16 | -0.58 |
| US & Hong Kong Dually Listed | Ticker | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Tencent HK | 700 HK Equity | -2.3 |
| Alibaba HK | 9988 HK Equity | -4.4 |
| JD.com HK | 9618 HK Equity | -6 |
| NetEase HK | 9999 HK Equity | -1.9 |
| Yum China HK | 9987 HK Equity | 0.4 |
| Baozun HK | 9991 HK Equity | 0.7 |
| Baidu HK | 9888 HK Equity | -7.2 |
| Autohome HK | 2518 HK Equity | 0.7 |
| Bilibili HK | 9626 HK Equity | -1.8 |
| Trip.com HK | 9961 HK Equity | -0.6 |
| EDU HK | 9901 HK Equity | -1.9 |
| Xpeng HK | 9868 HK Equity | -6.8 |
| Weibo HK | 9898 HK Equity | -2.3 |
| Li Auto HK | 2015 HK Equity | -2.3 |
| Nio Auto HK | 9866 HK Equity | -3.2 |
| Zhihu HK | 2390 HK Equity | -0.8 |
| KE HK | 2423 HK Equity | -0.3 |
| Tencent Music Entertainment HK | 1698 HK Equity | -1.9 |
| Meituan HK | 3690 HK Equity | -2.1 |
| Hong Kong's Most Heavily Traded by Value | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|
| ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD | -4.4 |
| TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD | -2.3 |
| SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURI-H | -2.8 |
| XIAOMI CORP-CLASS B | -2.6 |
| MEITUAN-CLASS B | -2.1 |
| BAIDU INC-CLASS A | -7.2 |
| XPENG INC - CLASS A SHARES | -6.8 |
| JD.COM INC-CLASS A | -6 |
| CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO-H | -3.3 |
| PING AN INSURANCE GROUP CO-H | -1.6 |
| Shanghai and Shenzhen's Most Heavily Traded by Value | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|
| SUNGROW POWER SUPPLY CO LT-A | -2.9 |
| GIGADEVICE SEMICONDUCTO-CL A | -9.5 |
| ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT CO LTD-A | -3.8 |
| GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS -A | -1.3 |
| EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY INC L-A | -4.7 |
| FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNE-A | -5.5 |
| CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHN-A | -2.8 |
| DO-FLUORIDE NEW MATERIALS -A | 1.6 |
| SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURIN-A | -4 |
| SHANNON SEMICONDUCTOR TECH-A | -9.5 |
Last Night’s Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
- CNY per USD 7.10 versus 7.10 yesterday
- CNY per EUR 8.26 versus 8.26 yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 1.81% versus 1.81% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 1.88% versus 1.88% yesterday
- Copper Price -0.10%
- Steel Price 0.23%
