MiniMax IPO Goes Full Send, Week In Review
6 Min. Read Time
Week in Review
- Asian equities were mostly higher in the first week of 2026, as Japan and Mainland China's STAR Market outperformed, while India and Pakistan underperformed.
- Chipmakers outperformed this week on multiple new related IPOs in Hong Kong, including the pending listing of Baidu's spin off of its Kunlun chip unit.
- China released the 2026 National Subsidy Program this week, which includes the first batch of RMB 62.5 billion to support the trade-in policy for consumer goods.
- Solar stocks rose this week on overcapacity reduction and potential industry consolidation.
- In our latest video, Cultural Analyst Xiabing Su visits Hainan Island, a longtime vacation destination and China's latest free-trade area.
Friday's Key News
Asian equities were mostly higher overnight, as Japan and Mainland China's STAR Market outperformed, while India and Pakistan underperformed.
The State Council’s Office of the Anti-monopoly and Unfair Competition Commission answered a reporter’s question on why they are investigating the “food delivery platform service industry” i.e. restaurant delivery. The Commission acknowledged the industry is “an important part of China's platform economy, the food delivery platform service industry has played an important role in promoting consumption, expanding employment and driving innovation.” However “in recent years, the problems of subsidy competition, price sharing and traffic control in the food delivery platform service industry have been outstanding, squeezing the real economy and intensifying the 'internal competition' of the industry.” Remember that JD.com’s entry into instant commerce included deep discounts and subsidies to garner market share from Meituan, which responded with its own subsidies. The subsidies have decimated the companies’ margins, net income, and stock prices. Alibaba’s Ele.me unit has also done deep discounts, but it is a smaller, single-digit percentage of revenue. The investigation is in response to mom and pop restaurants being hurt, as in restaurant dining collapses, as everyone orders delivery to receive deep discounts.
The release appears to have occurred after the market’s close. Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com all issued statements that they will cooperate and support the investigation. This could be a strong catalyst, in my opinion.
Notice how strong Mainland China's volumes were overnight, at 179% of the 1-year average on strong breadth.
Today, AI large language model (LLM) provider MiniMax listed shares publicly for the first time in Hong Kong. The company's shares gained +109%, giving the company a market capitalization of $13.5 billion, after raising $619 million. Alibaba’s investment in MiniMax lifted its stock overnight, which gained +2.73% in addition to reporting that its Qwen LLM has had 700 million downloads. Alibaba and AI plays, such as Kuaishou and yesterday’s AI LLM IPO, Zhipu saw strong gains.
Insurance, oil, non-ferrous metals, biotech, and machinery all outperformed. Electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem and battery firms were lower, as BYD fell -0.11% and CATL fell -1.21%. The Ministry of Finance cancelled solar export tax refunds and reduced the battery export tax refund to 6% from 9%. This follows yesterday’s report that the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) met with battery companies. Mainland-listed solar stocks were lower, as Sungrow fell -1.11%, Tongwei fell -3.83%, and LONGi fell -2.02%. Mainland China had a strong day, though banks and insurance were weaker, as software and non-ferrous metals had a strong day.
December's producer price index (PPI) declined -1.9% year-over-year (YoY), versus November’s -2.2% and expectations of -2% while the consumer price index (CPI) was +0.8% YoY versus November’s +0.7% and expectations of +0.8%. PPI was driven by non-ferrous metals mining, which increased +24% YoY and +3.4% month-over-month (MoM). Meanwhile, the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas declined by 11.5% YoY and by 1.3% MoM. CPI saw pork prices decline -14.6% YoY and -1.7% MoM, though fresh vegetables prices increased +18.2% YoY and +0.8%.
Premier Li and the State Council met today to discuss “a package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand”. Sounds positive to me!
It is our belief that President Trump and President Xi can announce an expansion of the current trade truce in April. Corporate partnership and investment deals could be announced at that time, for which the two big bosses can take credit. We want to watch for US corporate executives visiting China in advance of Trump’s April trip. Disney CEO Bob Iger met with Vice Premier Ding Xuexing in Beijing today.
Last Night's Performance
| Country / Index | Ticker | 1-Day Change |
|---|---|---|
| China (Hong Kong) | HSI Index | 0.3% |
| Hang Seng Tech | HSTECH Index | 0.2% |
| Hong Kong Turnover | HKTurn Index | -8.6% |
| Hong Kong Short Sale Turnover | HKSST Index | -26.5% |
| Short Turnover as a % of Hong Kong Turnover | N/A | 13% |
| Southbound Stock Connect Net Buy/Sell (US $ Millions) | N/A | 870.40 |
| China (Shanghai) | SHCOMP Index | 0.9% |
| China (Shenzhen) | SZCOMP Index | 1.3% |
| China (STAR Board) | Star50 Index | 1.4% |
| Mainland Turnover | .chturn Index | 11.7% |
| Northbound Stock Connect Net Buy/Sell (US $ Millions) | N/A | Not Available |
| Jing Daily China Global Luxury Index | CHINALUX Index | -1.3% |
| Japan | NKY Index | 1.6% |
| India | SENSEX Index | -0.7% |
| Indonesia | JCI Index | 0.1% |
| Malaysia | FBMKLCI Index | 1% |
| Pakistan | KSE100 Index | -0.5% |
| Philippines | PCOMP Index | 0.4% |
| South Korea | KOSPI Index | 0.7% |
| Taiwan | TWSE Index | -0.2% |
| Thailand | SET Index | 0% |
| Singapore | STI Index | 0.1% |
| Australia | AS51 Index | 0% |
| Vietnam | VNINDEX Index | 0.7% |
| Indicator | Hong Kong | Mainland China |
|---|---|---|
| Today's Volume as % of 1-Year Average | 97 | 179 |
| Advancing Stocks | 276 | 3719 |
| Declining Stocks | 197 | 1244 |
| Outperforming Factors | Momentum, Liquidity, Growth | Liquidity, Quality, EPS Revisions |
| Underperforming Factors | Value | Value |
| Top Sectors | Materials, Industrials, Discretionary | Communication, Materials, Energy |
| Bottom Sectors | Communication, Tech, Real Estate | Financials, Utilities |
| Top Subsectors | Media/Entertainment, Consumer Staples Distribution, Non Ferrous Metal | Cultural Media, Internet, Aerospace Military |
| Bottom Subsectors | Paper/Packaging, Construction Materials, Consumer Durables/Apparel | Insurance, Forest, Petrochemical |
| Southbound Connect Buys | Tencent, Xiaomi (Large), HS Tech, Kuaishou, SMIC (Moderate), Goldwind (Small) | N/A |
| Southbound Connect Sells | Alibaba (Large), Meituan,XtalPi (Small) | N/A |
| MSCI China All Shares Index | # of Stocks | Average 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong Listed | 151 | 0.27 |
| Communication Services | 9 | -0.66 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 28 | 1.07 |
| Consumer Staples | 13 | 0.07 |
| Energy | 7 | 0.73 |
| Financials | 23 | -0.1 |
| Health Care | 13 | 0.74 |
| Industrials | 20 | 1.11 |
| Information Technology | 10 | -0.37 |
| Materials | 10 | 2.47 |
| Real Estate | 6 | -0.28 |
| Utilities | 12 | -0.19 |
| Mainland China Listed | 404 | 0.59 |
| Communication Services | 6 | 4.2 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 31 | 0.61 |
| Consumer Staples | 24 | 0.28 |
| Energy | 13 | 1.25 |
| Financials | 64 | -0.34 |
| Health Care | 31 | 1.21 |
| Industrials | 64 | 0.76 |
| Information Technology | 91 | 0.58 |
| Materials | 58 | 1.71 |
| Real Estate | 6 | 0.69 |
| Utilities | 16 | -0.14 |
| US & Hong Kong Dually Listed | Ticker | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Tencent HK | 700 HK Equity | -0.8 |
| Alibaba HK | 9988 HK Equity | 2.7 |
| JD.com HK | 9618 HK Equity | 2.6 |
| NetEase HK | 9999 HK Equity | -1.3 |
| Yum China HK | 9987 HK Equity | 0.5 |
| Baozun HK | 9991 HK Equity | 5.5 |
| Baidu HK | 9888 HK Equity | -2.1 |
| Autohome HK | 2518 HK Equity | 4.3 |
| Bilibili HK | 9626 HK Equity | 3.1 |
| Trip.com HK | 9961 HK Equity | -0.8 |
| EDU HK | 9901 HK Equity | 1.9 |
| Xpeng HK | 9868 HK Equity | -0.6 |
| Weibo HK | 9898 HK Equity | 1.9 |
| Li Auto HK | 2015 HK Equity | -1.4 |
| Nio Auto HK | 9866 HK Equity | -1.2 |
| Zhihu HK | 2390 HK Equity | 2.1 |
| KE HK | 2423 HK Equity | 0.8 |
| Tencent Music Entertainment HK | 1698 HK Equity | 3.9 |
| Meituan HK | 3690 HK Equity | -2.5 |
| Hong Kong's Most Heavily Traded by Value | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|
| SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURI-H | -0.7 |
| TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD | -0.8 |
| ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD | 2.7 |
| CHINA MOBILE LTD-H | 0 |
| HUA HONG SEMICONDUCTOR LTD-H | -0.4 |
| XIAOMI CORP-CLASS B | -0.5 |
| HSBC HOLDINGS PLC | 0.4 |
| MEITUAN-CLASS B | -2.5 |
| PING AN INSURANCE GROUP CO-H | -0.3 |
| YANGTZE OPTICAL FIBRE AND-H | -2.3 |
| Shanghai and Shenzhen's Most Heavily Traded by Value | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|
| ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT CO LTD-A | -2.1 |
| SHANGHAI STONEHILL TECHNOL-A | -0.3 |
| BLUEFOCUS INTELLIGENT COMM-A | 14.1 |
| CHINA AEROSPACE TIMES ELEC-A | 10 |
| GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOL-A | 10 |
| EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY INC L-A | -3 |
| SHENZHEN SUNWAY COMMUNICAT-A | -1.4 |
| CHINA SPACESAT CO LTD -A | 4 |
| ADDSINO CO LTD -A | 2.6 |
| ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGEN-A | 5.1 |
Last Night's Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
- CNY per USD 6.98 versus 6.98 yesterday
- CNY per EUR 8.12 versus 8.13 yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 1.88% versus 1.89% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 1.98% versus 1.98% yesterday
- Copper Price 2.21%
- Steel Price 0.35%
