Non-Ferrous Metals Dip, Week In Review
6 Min. Read Time
Week in Review
- Asian equities were mixed but mostly lower for the week as Korea and Hong Kong outperformed, while Indonesia and Pakistan underperformed.
- China's industrial profits flipped to 5% year-over-year (YoY) growth in December, after declining YoY in November, according to a data release Tuesday.
- The "National Team", i.e., investment firms associated with China's sovereign wealth, was active in selling Mainland-listed ETFs this week, bringing the year-to-date (YTD) total net outflow to $114 billion, as they attempt to engineer a slow and steady bull market.
- President Xi met with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as AstraZeneca announced a $15 billion China investment.
Friday's Key News
Asian equities ended a very strong January with a thud, as Hong Kong underperformed, while the Philippines and Indonesia rebounded. Most markets posted single-digit positive returns, while India fell -5%.
The US dollar rebounded a touch as President Trump is expected to nominate the historically hawkish Kevin Warsh, rather than my recommendation, China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, considering that China has had lower rates than the US for a long time.
After a parabolic rise, non-ferrous metal stocks were due for a pullback and they got one overnight. Zijin Mining’s convertible bond issuance sent its shares lower by -9.19% in Hong Kong and -7.62% in Mainland China. The miner was the most heavily-traded stock by value in China and the third most heavily-traded stock in Hong Kong. While Alibaba’s exceedingly well-timed convertible deal to buyback stock marked the bottom in its shares, time will tell whether this marks the top for Zijin. Non-ferrous metals stocks fell -9.57%, on average, in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, on the Mainland, precious metals stocks fell by an average of -8.27%, and base metal stocks fell by -6.82%. Unlike other Asian markets or even Mainland China, the non-ferrous bubble letting out some air sent Hong Kong stocks down on an elevator broadly, as decliners outpaced advancers by 4 to 1. Volumes were not exceedingly high, though seeing all stocks sold down was a head scratcher.
Mainland investors bought the Hong Kong dip via Southbound Stock Connect to the tune of $412 million.
Alibaba fell 2.37% despite mainland media coverage of strong sales of the Zhenwu 810E AI chip, which competes with Nvidia and Cambricon. Alibaba saw fairly robust put option trading today.
Today’s Hong Kong heatmap resembles Omaha Beach. Though, there were some exceptions, including CATL, which gained +2.85% in Hong Kong and +2.37% in Mainland China, on an analyst upgrade. Mainland China, outside of non-ferrous metals, was okay, as technology hardware was higher on Apple’s strong sales.
The STAR Board posted a positive gain, led by Montage Technology, which rose 12.13% after announcing it would list in Hong Kong.
The Mainland-listed ETFs utilized by the "National Team" had below-average volumes, as the market's swoon tapped the brakes on the Mainland equity rally without much need for intervention. Mainland-listed China equity ETFs recorded $4.47 billion in outflows, bringing the year-to-date (YTD) total to $114.35 billion. That is a significant haircut, as the ETFs now have assets of $539 billion. It is worth noting that the 147 Mainland-listed ETFs providing exposure to Hong Kong-listed stocks have seen $4.12 billion in inflows year-to-date (YTD).
The State Council released the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption," which one would assume should help domestic tourism stocks. However, it was a non-factor in today's market action.
Panama’s Supreme Court decision against CK Hutchinson was noted in Chinese media.
I have not read the Wall Street Journal auto reporter’s review of the Xiaomi SU7, though it appears shockingly positive.
Enjoy the weekend!
Last Night's Performance
| Country / Index | Ticker | 1-Day Change |
|---|---|---|
| China (Hong Kong) | HSI Index | -2.1% |
| Hang Seng Tech | HSTECH Index | -2.1% |
| Hong Kong Turnover | HKTurn Index | -9.2% |
| Hong Kong Short Sale Turnover | HKSST Index | 22.8% |
| Short Turnover as a % of Hong Kong Turnover | N/A | 16.2% |
| Southbound Stock Connect Net Buy/Sell (US $ Millions) | N/A | 411.44 |
| China (Shanghai) | SHCOMP Index | -1% |
| China (Shenzhen) | SZCOMP Index | -0.8% |
| China (STAR Board) | Star50 Index | 0.1% |
| Mainland Turnover | .chturn Index | -12.2% |
| Japan | NKY Index | -0.1% |
| India | SENSEX Index | -0.4% |
| Indonesia | JCI Index | 1.2% |
| Malaysia | FBMKLCI Index | 0.6% |
| Pakistan | KSE100 Index | 0.8% |
| Philippines | PCOMP Index | 1.7% |
| South Korea | KOSPI Index | 0.1% |
| Taiwan | TWSE Index | -1.5% |
| Thailand | SET Index | -0.4% |
| Singapore | STI Index | -0.5% |
| Australia | AS51 Index | -0.7% |
| Vietnam | VNINDEX Index | 0.8% |
| Indicator | Hong Kong | Mainland China |
|---|---|---|
| Today's Volume % of 1-Year Average | 116 | 175 |
| Advancing Stocks | 91 | 2337 |
| Declining Stocks | 408 | 2698 |
| Outperforming Factors | Value | Value |
| Underperforming Factors | Momentum, Liquidity, EPS Revision | EPS Revision, Buybacks, Quality |
| Top Sectors | Industrials, Utilities, Energy | Tech, Energy, Utilities |
| Bottom Sectors | Materials, Information Technology, Healthcare | Materials, Real Estate, Consumer Staples |
| Top Subsectors | Electrical Equipment | Communication Equipment, Agriculture, Paper |
| Bottom Subsectors | Non Ferrous Metal, Steel, Industry Conglomerates | Precious Metals, Base Metals, Energy Equipment |
| Southbound Connect Buys | CSPC, Xiaomi (Large), HK Tracker ETF (Moderate), Alibaba, YOFC (Small) | N/A |
| Southbound Connect Sells | CNOOC, Zijin MIning (Moderate), Tencent (Small) | N/A |
| MSCI China All Shares Index | # of Stocks | Average 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong Listed | 165 | -2.54 |
| Communication Services | 11 | -2.45 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 28 | -2.13 |
| Consumer Staples | 13 | -2.3 |
| Energy | 6 | -1.45 |
| Financials | 25 | -1.97 |
| Health Care | 16 | -2.58 |
| Industrials | 22 | -0.98 |
| Information Technology | 12 | -2.63 |
| Materials | 14 | -9.4 |
| Real Estate | 7 | -2.36 |
| Utilities | 11 | -1.21 |
| Mainland China Listed | 386 | -1.32 |
| Communication Services | 8 | -0.33 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 26 | -1.71 |
| Consumer Staples | 19 | -2.87 |
| Energy | 12 | 0.32 |
| Financials | 64 | -0.98 |
| Health Care | 31 | -1.94 |
| Industrials | 58 | -0.19 |
| Information Technology | 95 | 0.49 |
| Materials | 52 | -5.51 |
| US & Hong Kong Dually Listed | Ticker | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Tencent HK | 700 HK Equity | -2.6 |
| Alibaba HK | 9988 HK Equity | -2.4 |
| JD.com HK | 9618 HK Equity | -1.9 |
| NetEase HK | 9999 HK Equity | -0.8 |
| Yum China HK | 9987 HK Equity | -2.3 |
| Baozun HK | 9991 HK Equity | 0.7 |
| Baidu HK | 9888 HK Equity | -1.7 |
| Autohome HK | 2518 HK Equity | 2.6 |
| Bilibili HK | 9626 HK Equity | -1.4 |
| Trip.com HK | 9961 HK Equity | -0.1 |
| EDU HK | 9901 HK Equity | 5.5 |
| Xpeng HK | 9868 HK Equity | -1.7 |
| Weibo HK | 9898 HK Equity | -2.2 |
| Li Auto HK | 2015 HK Equity | -2.6 |
| Nio Auto HK | 9866 HK Equity | 3.7 |
| Zhihu HK | 2390 HK Equity | -1 |
| KE HK | 2423 HK Equity | -3.3 |
| Tencent Music Entertainment HK | 1698 HK Equity | -2.1 |
| Meituan HK | 3690 HK Equity | -1.4 |
| Hong Kong's Most Heavily Traded by Value | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|
| TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD | -2.6 |
| ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD | -2.4 |
| ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO LTD-H | -9.2 |
| CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LT | -10.2 |
| PING AN INSURANCE GROUP CO-H | -0.8 |
| XIAOMI CORP-CLASS B | -3.1 |
| CNOOC LTD-H | -2.4 |
| SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURI-H | -2.4 |
| AIA GROUP LTD | -0.7 |
| CHINA LIFE INSURANCE CO-H | -1.8 |
| Shanghai and Shenzhen's Most Heavily Traded by Value | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|
| ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO LTD-A | -7.6 |
| ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT CO LTD-A | 5.7 |
| BLUEFOCUS INTELLIGENT COMM-A | -0.3 |
| EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY INC L-A | 6.7 |
| SUZHOU TFC OPTICAL COMMUNI-A | 10.9 |
| CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHN-A | 2.4 |
| MONTAGE TECHNOLOGY CO LTD-A | 12.1 |
| HUNAN GOLD CORP LTD-A | 10 |
| KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO LTD-A | -2.6 |
| LEO GROUP CO LTD-A | -2.6 |
Last Night's Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
- CNY per USD 6.95 versus 6.95 yesterday
- CNY per EUR 8.28 versus 8.31 yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 1.81% versus 1.82% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 1.96% versus 1.96% yesterday
- Copper Price +1.55%
- Steel Price +0.13%
