Hong Kong & Mainland Markets Resilient, Week in Review
7 Min. Read Time
Week in Review
- Asian equities were mixed, but mostly lower this week as turmoil in oil markets weighed on investor sentiment. Hong Kong and Mainland China outperformed, while Indonesia and India underperformed.
- On Monday, China reported the highest monthly change in its consumer price index (CPI) in two years in February, after deflationary pressures had weighed on consumer spending.
- Earnings results reported this week painted a mixed picture; battery giant CATL and electric vehicle maker NIO exceeded expectations on revenue and net income, while results from Li Auto missed estimates across both.
- China’s “Two Sessions” policy meetings concluded this week, which means the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026 – 2030) will be released in the coming days, a potentially significant catalyst for markets that is expected to prioritize domestic consumption growth and technology development.
Key News
Asian equities ended a tough week lower, as Korea, India, Thailand, and Indonesia all underperformed as the US dollar strengthened overnight.
Mainland China (Shanghai and Shenzhen) was the only positive market for the week in the region, while the Hang Seng Tech Index managed a small gain. Hong Kong was not off, but not nearly as much as US-listed China stocks were yesterday, which should lead to a bounce in the US today.
The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) confirmed Vice Premier He Lifeng’s meeting with Treasury Secretary Bessent in Paris from March 14th to 17th. The MoC, of course, did not like the US’ Section 301 investigation into 16 countries, including China, though no one should be surprised by President Trump’s decades-long affinity for tariffs.
New loans and aggregate financing, reported on a year-to-date (YTD) basis and updated monthly, beat expectations. The former rose to RMB 5.61 trillion YTD, versus expectations of RMB 5.58 trillion, and the latter rose to RMB 9.60 trillion YTD, versus expectations of only RMB 9.25 trillion. You gotta love the Bloomberg News headline: “China’s Credit Tops Estimates, Households Pull back”. When there is good news, there is always a 'but'.
Both Hong Kong and Mainland China bucked the regional downdraft with morning rallies, though both faded into the close, posting small losses. Mainland investors bought a healthy net $2.36 billion worth of Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETFs via Southbound Stock Connect, as the Hong Kong Tracker ETF saw a massive inflow of $1.02 billion. We also noticed inflows into other ETFs, including the Hang Seng Tech ETF, which saw a large call option trade, and stocks like Tencent, which gained +0.18% after a large call option trade, and Alibaba, which gained +0.68%, despite two large put option trades.
Alibaba Cloud launched JVS Claw, as its implementation of OpenClaw agentic artificial intelligence (AI) in China continues.
A Mainland media source noted that the General Administration of Customs will, from April 1st, promote cross-border E-Commerce exports.
BYD fell 1.48% despite confirming it is conducting research into entering F1 and other competitive racing opportunities.
Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEX) stock fell by -1.23%, despite proposing several measures to “reform,” i.e., loosen listing requirements.
Battery giant CATL gained +1.8%. However, other electric vehicle stocks were off. It is worth noting that the heavily foreign-owned AIA Insurance fell by -3.02%. However, insurance stocks were lower across the board. Oil & gas did well, though the higher dollar weighed on non-ferrous metal stocks (both precious and base metals). Headlines on weak year-to-date (YTD) consumption, which will be officially reported next week, may have weighed on consumer names, though it was not a risk-taking day.
Mainland China was interesting, as oil & gas stocks were lower. At the same time, mega-cap banks, consumer staples stocks, including liquor giant Kweichow Moutai, which gained +1.55, and CATL, which gained +0.38%, and telecoms all held up. There was a clear value bias today on the Mainland.
Tencent and Alibaba will report next week on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Mea culpa! Yesterday, I inadvertently said new ultra-long bonds were RMB 100 trillion, when they were actually RMB 100 billion. As my wife will happily tell you, with many examples, I am far from infallible! A shoutout to our steely-eyed friend Matt for pointing this out!
I am not a paid subscriber to Michael Burry’s research; therefore, I have not read his recently-articulated views on Hong Kong stocks. On social media, someone posted how the Hang Seng Tech Index grew earnings per share (EPS), on average, during its bear market, leading to “multiple compression," i.e., valuation and sentiment decline. We have long argued that sentiment has been a significant factor in the downturn over fundamentals. I will post a graph on X (Twitter) comparing Alibaba's bond performance to the stock. It is a truly amazing divergence!
The number of marriages in China increased by 657,00 in 2025, up 10.76% year-over-year (YoY) from 2024. In total, there were 6.76 million marriages and 2.74 million divorces. That's a lot of “I do’s”, though also quite a few “I don’t (s)!”
Last Night's Performance
| Country / Index | Ticker | 1-Day Change |
|---|---|---|
| China (Hong Kong) | HSI Index | -1% |
| Hang Seng Tech | HSTECH Index | -1% |
| Hong Kong Turnover | HKTurn Index | 1.8% |
| Hong Kong Short Sale Turnover | HKSST Index | 12% |
| Short Turnover as a % of Hong Kong Turnover | N/A | 21.3% |
| Southbound Stock Connect Net Buy/Sell (US $ Millions) | N/A | 2,356.13 |
| China (Shanghai) | SHCOMP Index | -0.8% |
| China (Shenzhen) | SZCOMP Index | -0.9% |
| China (STAR Board) | Star50 Index | -0.7% |
| Mainland Turnover | .chturn Index | -1.8% |
| Japan | NKY Index | -1.2% |
| India | SENSEX Index | -1.9% |
| Indonesia | JCI Index | -3.1% |
| Malaysia | FBMKLCI Index | -0.7% |
| Pakistan | KSE100 Index | -0.2% |
| Philippines | PCOMP Index | -0.9% |
| South Korea | KOSPI Index | -1.7% |
| Taiwan | TWSE Index | -0.5% |
| Thailand | SET Index | -1.4% |
| Singapore | STI Index | -0.3% |
| Australia | AS51 Index | -0.1% |
| Vietnam | VNINDEX Index | -0.8% |
| Indicator | Hong Kong | Mainland China |
|---|---|---|
| Today's Volume % of 1-Year Average | 95 | 125 |
| Advancing Stocks | 103 | 1799 |
| Declining Stocks | 410 | 3204 |
| Outperforming Factors | Low Vol, Dividend Yield | |
| Underperforming Factors | Growth, Value, Momentum | EPS Revision, Liquidity, Buyback |
| Top Sectors | Communication | Staples |
| Bottom Sectors | Materials, Healthcare, Tech | Materials, Energy, Tech |
| Top Subsectors | Commercial/Professional Services, Electrical Equipment, Telecom | Fertilizer, Liquor, Telecom |
| Bottom Subsectors | Non Ferrous Metal, National Defense, Semis | Internet, Precious Metals, Base Metals |
| Southbound Connect Buys | HK Tracker ETF (Massive), HS China Enterprise ETF (Very Large), HS Tech ETF, Tencent (Large), CNOOC (Moderate), Alibaba (Small) | N/A |
| Southbound Connect Sells | None | N/A |
| MSCI China All Shares Index | # of Stocks | Average 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong Listed | 165 | -0.52 |
| Communication Services | 11 | 0.14 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 28 | -0.22 |
| Consumer Staples | 13 | -0.86 |
| Energy | 6 | -0.73 |
| Financials | 25 | -0.37 |
| Health Care | 16 | -1.56 |
| Industrials | 22 | -1.05 |
| Information Technology | 12 | -1.44 |
| Materials | 14 | -3.14 |
| Real Estate | 7 | -0.6 |
| Utilities | 11 | -0.88 |
| Mainland China Listed | 386 | -0.97 |
| Communication Services | 8 | -1.24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 26 | -0.69 |
| Consumer Staples | 19 | 0.59 |
| Energy | 12 | -1.97 |
| Financials | 64 | -0.48 |
| Health Care | 31 | -0.87 |
| Industrials | 58 | -0.81 |
| Information Technology | 95 | -1.25 |
| Materials | 52 | -2.16 |
| US & Hong Kong Dually Listed | Ticker | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Tencent HK | 700 HK Equity | 0.2 |
| Alibaba HK | 9988 HK Equity | 0.7 |
| JD.com HK | 9618 HK Equity | 0.1 |
| NetEase HK | 9999 HK Equity | 0.5 |
| Yum China HK | 9987 HK Equity | 0 |
| Baozun HK | 9991 HK Equity | 0.9 |
| Baidu HK | 9888 HK Equity | 1.5 |
| Autohome HK | 2518 HK Equity | -2.1 |
| Bilibili HK | 9626 HK Equity | -1.3 |
| Trip.com HK | 9961 HK Equity | -1.4 |
| EDU HK | 9901 HK Equity | -2.5 |
| Xpeng HK | 9868 HK Equity | 0.7 |
| Weibo HK | 9898 HK Equity | -1.5 |
| Li Auto HK | 2015 HK Equity | -3.2 |
| Nio Auto HK | 9866 HK Equity | -0.2 |
| Zhihu HK | 2390 HK Equity | -0.6 |
| KE HK | 2423 HK Equity | -0.1 |
| Tencent Music Entertainment HK | 1698 HK Equity | 2.4 |
| Meituan HK | 3690 HK Equity | -1 |
| Hong Kong's Most Heavily Traded by Value | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|
| TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD | 0.2 |
| ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD | 0.7 |
| CNOOC LTD-H | 2.3 |
| HSBC HOLDINGS PLC | -5 |
| BRIGHT SMART SECURITIES AND | 34 |
| SHANDONG MOLONG PETROLEUM-H | 5.2 |
| YANGTZE OPTICAL FIBRE AND-H | 0.5 |
| XIAOMI CORP-CLASS B | 0.1 |
| SENSETIME GROUP INC-CLASS B | -3.3 |
| HUA HONG SEMICONDUCTOR LTD-H | -7.4 |
| Shanghai and Shenzhen's Most Heavily Traded by Value | 1-Day Change (%) |
|---|---|
| HGTECH CO LTD-A | -7.2 |
| SUNGROW POWER SUPPLY CO LT-A | 1.3 |
| EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY INC L-A | 4 |
| CHINA ENERGY ENGINEERING C-A | -1.6 |
| CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHN-A | 0.4 |
| POWER CONSTRUCTION CORP OF-A | 9.9 |
| GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOL-A | 0.4 |
| SUZHOU DONGSHAN PRECISION-A | 1.5 |
| ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT CO LTD-A | 1.4 |
| WUS PRINTED CIRCUIT KUNSHA-A | 6.3 |
Last Night’s Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
- CNY per USD 6.90 versus 6.87 yesterday
- CNY per EUR 7.90 versus 7.94 yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 1.81% versus 1.81% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 1.97% versus 1.96% yesterday
- Copper Price -0.26%
- Steel Price 0.54%
